Over the past decade, the exit
polls have a reputation for accuracy in projecting election results including
the winning margin. In the 2002 presidential election, the exit polls indicated
a 1.7 percentage point lead for Roh Moo-hyun and he eventually won by a 2.3
percentage point lead. There was just a 0.6 percentage point difference between
the exit polls and the actual results. And in the 2010 Seoul City mayoral
election, there was just a 0.4 percentage point difference between the exit
polls and the actual results. In 2002, the three major S. Korean TV networks
(KBS, MBC, and SBS) took the exit polls “separately” and “independently.” During
Lee Myung-bak’s administration (2008~present), most of the South Korean media
have diminished to be the government’s handmaidens and this year, strangely
enough, KBS, MBC, and SBS decided to conduct the “joint” exit polls, all of a
sudden.
In the 2012 presidential
election, the exit polls showed very low accuracy. The “joint” exit polls by
KBS, MBC, and SBS indicated a 1.7 percentage point lead for Park Geun-hye but
she eventually won by a 3.6 percentage point lead. A 2.4 percentage point
difference between the exit polls and the actual results is huge. On the other
hand, in the exit polls by OhMyNews, Moon Jae-in was projected to win the
election by a 2.4 percentage point lead, beyond the margin of error. All these
exit polls had been taken up until 3:00 pm. When we consider the fact that in
South Korea, voters in their 50’s and over who tend to lead toward the
conservative party tend to do more early voting than the younger generations who
tend to lean toward the democratic party, Moon could have won by a huge margin.
And in fact, in the exit polls by YTN, Moon was projected to win the election by
a 3.6 percentage point lead.
More than anything, voter
turnouts were soaring throughout the Election Day, almost as high as in the 1997
presidential election in which Kim Daejung, the Democratic nominee, won the
election and even higher than in the 2002 presidential election in which Roh
Moo-hyun, also the Democratic nominee, won the election.
Around 1:00 pm, Park
Geun-hye’s Saenuri Party announced they would file a lawsuit to declare invalid
election even if Moon won the election, making a false accusation of unlawful
acts. According to some reports made around that time, Park’s camp and Saenuri
Party were texting one another, stating the emergency while Moon’s camp, the
Democratic Party, and the supporters were in a festive mood. According to the
resources for reporters, the joint exit polls taken by KBS, MBC, and SBS up
until 3:00 pm indicated a 2.2 percentage point lead for Moon (Moon: 50.8%, Park:
48.6%).
 |
Exit poll results conducted by various polling agencies
were texted to Park Jie-won, the floor leader for Democratic Party
right
before the release of the "joint" exit polls by KBS, MBC, and SBS.
All of
them projected Moon Jae-in to win the election.
The text message above
reads:
Samsung: Moon (50.8%), Park (48.6%)
Korea Research: Moon (47%),
Park (42%)
Reseach View & Stock Firms: Moon (50.4%), Park
(48.1%)
Research Plus: Moon (50.4%), Park (48.1%)
KBS (Independent), YTN,
Blue House indicated a 3 percentage point lead for
Moon. |
But in less than two hours, at
5:00 pm, KBS, MBC, and SBS unanimously projected Park to win the election (Moon:
48.9%, Park: 50.1%). Unlike past elections, they didn’t even announce and update
the hourly exit polls before 5:00 pm.
FYI, there’s no more exit polls
after 5:00 pm and 2,310,660 people voted after 5 pm. Suppose the joint exit
polls were accurate, then in order for Moon to win, he should have earned 57.5%
of 2,310,660 votes. But not only did he fail to do so but he lost by a bigger
margin than projected. Traditionally, college students and blue/white collar
workers tend to start voting around 5:00 pm after their work is over. And they
tend to lean toward the progressive party. Here’s one out of many examples: In
the 2010 Seoul City mayoral election, Oh Se-hoon of the conservative Grand
National Party (former Saenuri Party) was leading by 14 percentage point margin
in the morning, by 4 percentage point margin at 4:00 pm, and by 0.6 percentage
point margin around closing time as more people voted for Han Myung-sook of the
Democratic Party after 4:00 pm.
Did Moon fail to earn 57.5% of
2,310,660 votes cast after 5:00 pm because the voters in their 50’s and over
chose to turn out after 5:00 pm this time? And reportedly, voters in their 50’s
marked 90% turnout and the media is unanimously making a fuss about it every
day. Does it mean the conservative fifty something voters chose to turn out
altogether after 5:00 pm, only in this election?
(2) The 2012 South Korean
Presidential Election Marked High Voter Turnout: 75.8%
Past elections have shown that
the higher the voter turnout, the more likely the progressive party to win. The
media and Saenuri Party are now touting the growth in the 50 and over
population. It’s true the 50 and over population has increased 10%. Voters in
their 50’s reportedly marked 89.9% turnout but they are a limited range of the
voters. Thus, we don’t think it’s plausible they were the main reason of the
higher-than-usual voter turnout.
(3) Turnout among Voters in
Their 50’s was Abnormally High and Turnout among Voters in Their 40’s was
Abnormally Low
Voter turnouts of the 1997,
2002, and 2007 presidential elections show a uniform pattern. When we calculate
the voter turnout by age based on this pattern, 82% of voters in their 40’s and
80% of voters in their 50’s must have turned out to vote with 75.8% voter
turnout. But in fact, in the 2012 presidential election with 75.8% voter
turnout, only 78.7% of voters in their 40’s are known to have voted while a
tremendously high number of voters in their 50’s (89.9%) have turned out to
vote. Let me put it this way. If 51 year-old voters mark 82% turnout, then
voters at a certain age group must mark 98% turnout to make 89.9% average
turnout possible. So, 89.9% turnout among voters in their 50’s, do you think
it’s really possible?
Especially, while the average
turnout gap in past elections between voters in their 40’s and those in their
50’s is 7%, the gap in turnout in the 2012 presidential election is 11.2%. When
we consider the high turnout in this election, the gap would be approximately
13%. Please beware that the turnout among voters in their 50’s has nothing to
do with the growth in the 50’s population. Yet, the leading conservative news
media is trying to relate these two variables to justify the nonsensical
election results. But the fact of the matter is, the voter turnout by age is not
available at this time and they are telling lies with no tangible real
numbers.
(4) Moon Jae-in Earned 40% of
the Vote Cast in Busan
As Busan is a traditional
conservative Saenuri Party voting constituency, Moon’s Democratic camp had hoped
to get 35% of the vote at the most. But in fact, he got 40% of the vote
surpassing their own expectations. This is the best result the Democratic Party
has ever had in Busan in the history of South Korean elections. FYI, Roh
Moo-hyun won the 2002 presidential election, with only 29.9% of the vote earned
in Busan. But Moon lost the 2012 presidential election, even with 39.9% of the
vote earned in Busan.
(5) Absentee Voter Turnout
was Very High
900,000 absentee voters and
150,000 South Koreans overseas cast their votes – 1,050,000 votes in all. A
majority of absentee voters are younger generations who tend to lean toward the
progressive party and absentee voter participation in the 2012 presidential
election was tremendously high. Moon also got 56.7% of the vote cast by 150,000
South Koreans overseas while Park got 42.8%.
(6) Possible Unlawful Acts in
Absentee Vote and Overseas Vote
Votes are counted immediately
after voting ends. But the absentee votes and overseas votes are counted
respectively 5 days and 9 days after voting ends. Therefore, there’s a security
risk for ballot boxes since early vote count is not allowed. Unless the
official supervisors from each party keep a close watch on the boxes 24/7,
anyone can always open them and rig the vote. For instance, in the 2011 Seoul
City mayoral by-election that Park Won-soon of the Democratic Party won 53.2% to
46.4%, Na Kyung-won of conservative Saenuri Party earned 54.7% of the absentee
vote.
More importantly, the ballot
boxes in the 2012 presidential election were made from plastic and accordingly,
the security seals and safety latches can always be removed from and applied
back to the plastic ballot boxes without damaging.
 |
| The safety latches were also made from
plastic. |
 |
| A
ballot box with no security seal |
 |
| Extra ballot boxes with no seals hidden behind found by
a voter |
 |
One of the ballot boxes made of metal
used
during Roh Moo-hyun's administration |
Besides, the ballot envelopes were
transparent so anyone can see who the votes were for, which means anyone can
selectively pick out and switch or discard the votes. This is a clear violation
of the constitution that guarantees secret ballots.
 |
| Picture taken at 2012 S. Korean
presidential election voting center |
And the
absentee ballot envelopes were transparent, too.
(7) Other Proofs for
Possible Unlawful Acts Associated with Vote Count
Since the Election Day, South
Koreans have been raising suspicions that there were unlawful acts associated
with S. Korea's presidential vote count, including “8 million” ballots votes
declared invalid and left unaccounted for or bunches of votes for Park Geun-hye
found folded together, to name a few.
 |
| Votes declared to be for Park
Geun-hye |
 |
A
bunch of votes for Park Geun-hye
folded together
found in Andong voting
center |
 |
| A
bunch of votes for Park Geun-hye
folded
together |
But most importantly, According to
Han Young-soo, a former union head of the Central Election Management Committee,
the very first broadcast of the 2012 presidential election results proved that
there were unlawful, corrupt acts associated with vote count. YTN was the first
network to release the election results from the voting centers around the
nation. Under the South Korean Public Official Election Act, 100 votes should be
bundled together, manually counted, screened, then signed and sealed by the
election board. And the official result of each bundle is officially announced
by the chairman of the regional election committee, transmitted to the Central
Election Management Committee, and then broadcast by the networks. When YTN
broadcast the early results from Danyang or Hoengseong, however, votes less than
100 were released as shown in the following pictures.
 |
| YTN reports the results from
Danyang, Chungbuk Province |
 |
| YTN reports the results from
Hoengseong, Gangwon Province |
This means the votes were “not”
put in bundles of 100, or manually counted, or screened, or signed and sealed by
the election board. And the official result of each bundle was “not” officially
announced by the chairman of the regional election committee or transmitted to
the Central Election Management Committee. And this election should be
invalidated as the Central Election Management Committee committed unlawful acts
which were strongly related to the unlawful use of the electronic counter for
the actual counting, not just for sorting. This means the Central Election
Management Committee has also diminished to be the government’s handmaiden and
systematically committed unlawful acts in South Korea’s presidential election in
connivance with the TV networks.
(8) Only Electronic Counters
were Used for Vote Count
Errors and fraud made in South
Korean elections including the 2012 presidential election will be discussed
below. In short, this election was Moon Jae-in’s to lose but he really lost by
a big margin.
2. Inevitable Connection
between Electronic Counting and Man in Power
Even before the 2012
presidential election, there have been some concerns expressed regarding the use
of the electronic counters as a means of vote count. Experts like Han Young-soo,
a former union head of the Central Election Management Committee say they can
pre-program the electronic counters and the Central Election Management
Committee’s computer to fabricate the election results. The reality is one
thing, the virtual reality is another. In other words, the Central Election
Management Committee and the TV networks can always release and broadcast the
fabricated counting process and results live.
Imagine that you are President
Lee Myung-bak with great power and money but with no sense of shame or decency.
During your own administration, you have been imbued with corruption. If the
Democratic office holds power, then it’s highly likely that you will be subject
to criminal prosecution and sent to prison. But you know too well that the
electronic counters have serious flaws; that these machines can be easily used
to rig the votes so magically. For it was you who asked for the recount in the
previous presidential election. Then would you not feel tempted to cheat using
these machines? If not, then you would feel uneasy and nervous on Election Day,
wouldn’t you? But when South Koreans saw him vote with the First Lady on
Election Day, they felt uneasy and nervous instead because the First Couple
looked so worry-free and even delighted as if they didn’t care about the
election results or already knew the results.
Now click to watch the videos
below that show the serious flaws of the electronic counters and errors and
fraud made in the South Korean elections.
Electronic Counters:
Errors and Fraud in S. Korean Elections
Electronic Counters:
Errors and Fraud Simulation
Now, you will see a very
surprising analysis provided by SBS, which shows Park got 100 votes and Moon got
93 votes consistently every 30 minutes after 22:30 am. Do you think it's ever
possible to happen?
3. Recount, no, Actual Count
Must be Done Immediately
A. Tentative count
(electronic counting) was done.
B. Formal count (manual
counting) has not started yet.
C. The election results are
not officially confirmed.
Under the South Korean Public
Official Election Act, the electronic counters cannot be used in elections, but
only in by-elections by mutual consent (with other parties). So if the Central
Election Management Committee refuses to do the manual counting, then the
election itself should be nullified as they are violating the South Korean
Public Official Election Act.
Do you remember the Florida
election recount of 2000 US presidential election? And the South Korean
presidential election recount of 2002? After the recount, President Roh
Moo-hyun’s election was legally/officially assured. Recount is our right
guaranteed by the constitution. And we’re not even asking for recount; we’re
asking for the formal manual counting that is regulated by the constitution. Why
are the Lee Myung-bak administration, the Central Election Management Committee,
and the political parties violating the law? This is a serious constitutional
crime that impinges voting rights and election law.
More accurately speaking, the
electronic counters are merely sorting machines that are used to sort votes to
accelerate the counting processes. That’s why the manual counting must follow
to verify the serial numbers, invalid votes, misplaced votes, and so on. And
this is regulated by the South Korean Public Official Election Act. In short,
the actual counting must go on. Why did they leave the counting held in
suspension?
All the votes were “sorted” now.
And based on the tentative results, South Korean media projected Park Geun-hye
to win the election. Now, it’s time for the real counting.
And now, South Koreans are
signing petition for the manual count on the 2012 Presidential Election and also
will file a lawsuit to seek the nullification of the election.
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This post will be continually updated as new information
comes in.
